19 Jul · 06:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1410
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1429
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H43-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.