19 Jul · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OM
🇺🇦Oleh Maksymkiv
ELO 1427
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sapuzhak
OS
🇺🇦Oleg Sapuzhak
ELO 1432
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sapuzhak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.