20 Jul · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1605
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Rak
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1542
FormWWLLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romaniak
Fair odds · Rak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H43-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-17)