20 Jul · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1521
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Rak
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1605
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 66% (101)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H65-55
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (65-55)