20 Jul · 16:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1598
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rak
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1605
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shcherbak
Fair odds · Rak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H39-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.