21 Jul · 02:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇺🇦Oleksii Shyndel
ELO 1549
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Shyndel
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1543
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Derevynskyi covers set handicap as underdog 74% (42)
Fair odds · Shyndel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H20-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.