20 Jul · 21:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1529
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karpisek
OK
🇺🇦Ondrej Karpisek
ELO 1539
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Karpisek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H6-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.