21 Jul · 02:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1418
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mitla
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1451
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Mitla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (48)
Fair odds · Mitla
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H43-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.