20 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1577
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1612
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 63% (150)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H59-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.