20 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nazarov
ELO 1596
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lievshin
AL
🇺🇦Anatolii Lievshin
ELO 1602
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Nazarov
Fair odds · Lievshin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.