21 Jul · 01:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1451
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mitla
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1409
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov🌟Mitla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (48)
Fair odds · Mitla
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H49-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.