20 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SK
🇺🇦Stepan Kalensky
ELO 1523
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kalensky
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1520
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 72% (76)
Fair odds · Kalensky
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.