20 Jul · 22:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1451
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lazebny
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1535
FormLWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Lazebny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (132)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H29-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-12)