20 Jul · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PO
🇺🇦Petr Orlowski
ELO 1608
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Orlowski
OK
🇺🇦Ondrej Karpisek
ELO 1539
FormWWLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Orlowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H9-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-6)