21 Jul · 06:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EB
🇺🇦Eldar Bektemirov
ELO 1574
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bektemirov
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1543
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🌟Derevynskyi covers set handicap as underdog 74% (42)
Fair odds · Bektemirov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.