20 Jul · 23:15 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1418
FormLLLWW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Lazebny
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1535
FormLWLWW
38%
62%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Lazebny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (132)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
22%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
3-1
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H28-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-18)