21 Jul · 00:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yan Krol
ELO 1584
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krol
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1543
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Derevynskyi covers set handicap as underdog 74% (42)
Fair odds · Krol
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H23-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.