21 Jul · 03:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yan Krol
ELO 1584
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krol
OS
🇺🇦Oleksii Shyndel
ELO 1549
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🌟Shyndel rarely covers set handicap as underdog 29% (17)
Fair odds · Krol
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.