20 Jul · 19:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AY
🇺🇦Anton Yakovenko
ELO 1438
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stepanchuk
YS
🇺🇦Yaroslav Stepanchuk
ELO 1474
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Stepanchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (63)
Fair odds · Stepanchuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
17%
Elo Gap+36
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.