21 Jul · 00:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1418
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smyrnov
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1409
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H44-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.