20 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇺🇦Josef Gruber
ELO 1623
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gruber
PO
🇺🇦Petr Orlowski
ELO 1608
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Gruber covers set handicap as favourite 69% (29)
Fair odds · Gruber
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.