21 Jul · 13:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇺🇦Anton Molochko
ELO 1750
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Molochko
VV
🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany
ELO 1676
FormWLWWW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Verbyany
Fair odds · Molochko
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H100-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (100-49)