21 Jul · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1567
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1657
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Dobias rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (126)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H27-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-20)