21 Jul · 18:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1539
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1578
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 67% (64)
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.