21 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1472
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vorel
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1491
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plyska🌟Vorel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (73)
Fair odds · Vorel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H38-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.