21 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1472
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dvoracek
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1478
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Dvoracek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.