21 Jul · 12:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1562
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1614
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 62% (154)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H60-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (60-27)