21 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1498
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ziakun
VZ
🇺🇦Viktor Ziakun
ELO 1531
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Ziakun
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 25% · 3.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H5-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.