21 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1464
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Honcharenko
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1447
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Matviichuk stays under total as underdog 73% (48)
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H58-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.