21 Jul · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇺🇦Adam Radkovsky
ELO 1613
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Radkovsky
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1588
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolman🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 73% (49)
Fair odds · Radkovsky
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H17-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.