21 Jul · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1522
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Derevianko
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1562
FormLWLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H8-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.