21 Jul · 13:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1592
FormLLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Rak
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1521
FormWWLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romaniak
Fair odds · Rak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H44-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-17)