21 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YV
🇺🇦Yurii Volkov
ELO 1600
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Volkov
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1572
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Karpenko covers set handicap as underdog 70% (70)
Fair odds · Volkov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H33-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.