21 Jul · 14:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YT
🇺🇦Yaroslav Tebenko
ELO 1545
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1616
FormWWWWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tebenko🌟Tebenko covers set handicap as underdog 67% (96)
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H23-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-13)