21 Jul · 19:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇺🇦Ales Svoboda
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Svoboda
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1488
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Rejent covers set handicap as underdog 63% (95)
Fair odds · Svoboda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.