21 Jul · 18:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YK
🇺🇦Yan Krol
ELO 1549
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krol
OS
🇺🇦Oleksii Shyndel
ELO 1541
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Shyndel rarely covers set handicap as underdog 32% (19)
Fair odds · Krol
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.