21 Jul · 19:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇺🇦Jan Krames Sr
ELO 1597
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sr
RD
🇺🇦Roman Durovic
ELO 1541
FormLWLWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Durovic🌟Durovic covers set handicap as underdog 75% (16)
Fair odds · Sr
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)