21 Jul · 23:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ER
🇺🇦Eduard Rubtsov
ELO 1423
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chelpanov
SC
🇺🇦Serhii Chelpanov
ELO 1436
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Chelpanov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (56)
Fair odds · Chelpanov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H53-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.