22 Jul · 00:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ER
🇺🇦Eduard Rubtsov
ELO 1423
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Mishchenko
OM
🇺🇦Oleksandr Mishchenko
ELO 1504
FormLLLLW
41%
59%
🌟Mishchenko stays under total as favourite 63% (98)
Fair odds · Mishchenko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H73-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (73-39)