21 Jul · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1674
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Maksymiv
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1625
FormWWWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H24-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-15)