22 Jul · 06:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SA
🇺🇦Spartak Abalmaz
ELO 1553
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Abalmaz
RG
🇺🇦Roman Gnoevoy
ELO 1549
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Gnoevoy covers set handicap as underdog 72% (64)
Fair odds · Abalmaz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H40-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.