22 Jul · 01:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1423
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kotyk
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1469
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 63% (110)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)