22 Jul · 00:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1469
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kotyk
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1435
FormWLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Mitla covers set handicap as underdog 63% (130)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.