22 Jul · 02:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ON
🇺🇦Oleksandr Naida
ELO 1464
FormLLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Gnoevoy
RG
🇺🇦Roman Gnoevoy
ELO 1549
FormWWWLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Gnoevoy
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H72-90
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)