21 Jul · 23:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1423
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mitla
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1435
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Mitla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (50)
Fair odds · Mitla
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H44-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.