21 Jul · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IE
🇺🇦Ivan Elfemov
ELO 1499
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sharpai
VS
🇺🇦Viktor Sharpai
ELO 1530
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Elfemov covers set handicap as underdog 67% (54)
Fair odds · Sharpai
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.