22 Jul · 02:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1423
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Napirko
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1463
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Napirko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (75)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H26-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.