21 Jul · 22:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1463
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Napirko
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1435
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Napirko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (75)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H34-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.