21 Jul · 21:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇺🇦Ales Svoboda
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Sr
JS
🇺🇦Jan Krames Sr
ELO 1597
FormWLLWL
42%
58%
🌟Sr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (97)
Fair odds · Sr
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)