21 Jul · 23:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1463
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kotyk
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1469
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Kotyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (48)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.